Monday, May 7, 2012

Harvard Gloms onto Stanford-MIT Model - Splendor in the Glass

Professor Kit Parker and Dean Youngme Moon Engage NYC Alumni on Innovation
In New York City last week to celebrate Harvard's 375th year and reconnect with alumni was Drew Gilpin Faust, Harvard’s 28th President and its first woman president. Alumni were invited to the Allen Room at Jazz at Lincoln Center, on the 5th and 6th floors of the Time-Warner building at Columbus Circle. The huge room is surreal, with the backdrop of New York City arrayed through two full floors of walls of glass squares, an exterior wall that is flat and an interior one that is curved.  As the evening rolled on like a play in a Greek amphitheater, the lighting darkened and added to the entertainment value of the event.

Walter Isaacson was President Faust’s interviewer and served up a few appropriate puffball questions before fielding sharper questions from the alumni. Each seat included a 4x6 piece of paper and a little stubby pencil. Alumni wrote down a question and then handed the paper to one of a flock of serious people patrolling the stepped aisles of the room, who carried the papers to Mr. Isaacson. The same people later carried radio microphones up and down the steps for the second part of the program, on innovation. But I am getting ahead of my story.

President Faust announced an "80 percent yield" for the entering freshman class of the fall of 2012. This is Admissions lingo for the number of applicants who accepted a place at Harvard College after having been informed of being admitted, divided by the number of people who were offered a place. This 80 percent figure, reported President Faust, is the highest Harvard figure since 1971. My recollection is that Harvard has in the past reported that its yield is the highest of any university. So 80 percent must be some kind of candidate for the Guinness Book of Records. Huzzah! By way of explaining Harvard's high yield rate, President Faust gave examples of the current emphasis on teaching at Harvard. The University is attempting to reward good teachers with the same kinds of recognition that accompany significant research.  Good idea!

Isaacson then read out the first alumni question, a brief one on the status of the Science Center at Allston, and the cognoscenti leaned forward to hear her response. President Faust gave a long answer, referring as a point of departure to the impact of the global financial meltdown on the size of the University's endowment.
My Comment: To be specific, the Endowment fell by 30 percent or $11 billion in fiscal 2009, as predicted in Vanity Fair before the numbers were available. In the previous 18 years, the Endowment had grown more than sevenfold. This success was associated with Jack Meyer, former First Deputy Comptroller and investment manager for the New York City Comptroller, who quintupled the Endowment during his tenure. Meyer was reportedly criticized in 2004 for paying himself and key staff eight-figure salaries for their good performance. President Larry Summers, with support from Robert Rubin on the Harvard Corporation, allegedly argued that Meyer was unnecessarily aggressive. Meyer quit in early 2005 and many of his top staff followed him out. Meyer’s private hedge fund did extremely well during the next five years, outperforming its benchmarks by 8 percentage points per year. President Summers resigned in mid-2006 following a well-publicized dispute with women faculty. To maintain its budget in the face of the 30 percent decline in the Endowment in 2009, the University took on $6 billion of debt, with a reported annual service cost of more than $500 million. Some ambitious plans, notably for the Allston Science Center, were shelved.  The endowment recovered 21.2 percent of its value in the last two years. It is still $5 billion below where it was in 2008. The University is breathing more easily, but may still feel cornered by fiscal issues.

A new plan for the Center is being refined, reports President Faust. It will encourage both a greater concentration of scientific talent in the science center and will establish designated locations for nearby private businesses to create spaces for commercializing new ideas. In other words, more like Stanford and MIT.

To underscore the message, the rest of the formal program, as I started to say before, was devoted to a discussion of innovation. The Dean of the Harvard Business School in charge of the MBA program, Youngme Moon, began the discussion. She is a short and slender (see photo at top) graduate of Yale (gasps of horror were heard through the crowd when this fact was mentioned) and Stanford, and previously taught at MIT. She was counter-balanced physically by a beefy engineering professor with a background in the U.S. Army, Kit Parker. They engaged aggressively with the audience on where good ideas come from and the culture of competition. Having established that there were innovative companies like Apple and Nike, and not-very-innovative enterprises like the US Postal Service, the two discussion leaders took pains to establish that Harvard was in the former category.

Their underlying thesis is that a university is inherently a fountainhead of innovation. Individuals put out ideas and then through debate they see how their ideas compete with others in a marketplace of ideas. The discussion then circled back to what kind of students Harvard wants to admit and develop. The answer: It wants students that are ready to try new things, and it wants to encourage students in this endeavor. Being ready to try new things means being willing to fail. No more staying in a comfort zone so as to be sure of keeping all the grades at the A level. Harvard likes entering students who have gotten out of their comfort zone and it wants students to graduate having tried new things. Harvard wants to be a place where one can "put out ideas and let them compete and it is okay to have ideas fail and start over, letting the bad ideas go."
My Comment: The idea of a marketplace for ideas is itself, of course, not new.  Socrates taught by interrogation and a debate. The idea of a market for ideas was promoted by John Milton, John Stuart Mill and Thomas Jefferson, who are quoted when universities want to defend academic freedom and tenure. But Harvard is saying not just that it wants professors to be free to speak their minds.  It wants students and faculty to develop ideas that will be marketable. So Harvard becomes a kind of factory for new ideas, with venture capitalists encouraged to lurk in the shadows to pump money into the best ideas. The idea of encouraging new ideas certainly works for venture capital, which, by the way, was pioneered by a government agency, the Small Business Administration, through its SBIC program. It also works in the nonprofit field as the heart of the social entrepreneurship initiative. Even in government, the idea is applicable to risk-taking to experiment with new measures and new programs to make progress in areas that may not initially be politically popular. But rewards for risk-taking depend on timing. The dot.com investments of the late 1990s soured in 2000. What worked in 2000-2005 was not so profitable in the second half of the decade. Sometimes steadiness and consistency are more important to an institution than taking risks. Universities are properly a marketplace of ideas, but they are not necessarily the best place to commercialize ideas. Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg didn’t hang around Harvard after they decided they had a good idea.

After all that we repaired to a post-discussion cocktail party with a parade of servers with small hors-d'oeuvres artistically arranged on elegant glass plates. The biggest risks seem to have been taken by the servers, who had to walk up and down stairs and then face hungry Harvard alumni competing to nab and wolf down the small delicacies. A good innovation for the Allen Room would be a dumb-waiter.
Postscript: After I wrote this I belatedly picked up my April 30, 2012 issue of The New Yorker and read the story by Ken Auletta on Stanford's close ties to business - "Get Rich U." The subtitle is: "There are no walls between Stanford and Silicon Valley. Should there be?" Auletta looks at the other side of the Stanford coin. Stanford faculty who are not in engineering or computer science told him they felt the humanities are neglected. They wonder about the harnessing of Stanford to student and faculty greed. What happened to the contemplative tradition? When the proposal to open up a New York City campus came along, the dissidents were concerned about an excessive focus on applied science in the Stanford proposal. Auletta's story does not note a key fact in the competition among Stanford, Cornell and NYU. Along the way a Cornell alumnus pledged a $250 million gift to the Roosevelt Island campus if Cornell won the bidding. That must have skewed the decision-making, since the campus will be hugely expensive and New York City's contribution is limited to the land and some infrastructure. One person who has seen all three proposals believes that NYU's was the best of all. Once Stanford had withdrawn, the Mayor provided NYU with a substantial consolation prize in the form of space and resources in Brooklyn to help NYU realize its proposal in conjunction with NYU Poly (formerly known as Brooklyn Poly). Although Auletta criticizes the Mayor for giving Stanford a hard time in the final weeks of the competition, the Cornell gift was a game-changer. The Mayor's support of both the Cornell and NYU proposals may turn out to be brilliant. Business Week just came out with a riposte to Auletta, arguing that in the face of competition from China and India, we need more Stanfords. But what is properly a top economic priority for New York City and a valid focus for Cornell and NYU may not necessarily be totally compelling for Harvard. The trade of birthright for soup was a good deal for Isaac's father Jacob, but a bad one for Esau. It's at least worth a little more discussion, which is what alumni reunions are good for besides increasing alumni giving.

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

March Metro Jobs: 93.8 and 73.1 - Job Growth Slow


Metro Jobs in March showed a diffusion index of 93.8 for unemployment and 73.1 for payroll jobs. The BLS reported the numbers today:
Unemployment rates were lower in March than a year earlier in 342 of the 372 metropolitan areas, higher in 16 areas, and unchanged in 14 areas.... [Also,] 267 metropolitan areas reported over-the-year increases in nonfarm payroll employment, 96 reported decreases, and 9 had no change. The national unemployment rate in March was 8.4 percent, not seasonally adjusted, down from 9.2 percent a year earlier.
The trouble with this method of reporting is that the monthly data come in clusters of three. A diffusion index provides a single number showing how metros have done. Using the same weights as the Conference Board, the numbers that get better get a 1 and the numbers that get worse get a zero; the number of unchanged metros get a 0.5. That makes for an unemployment diffusion index of (342+7)/372 = 93.8 percent of metros showed a favorable direction.

But the corresponding index for nonfarm payroll jobs would be (267+5)/372 = 73.1 percent. In other words, in 73.1 percent of metros, payroll jobs showed a favorable direction (they grew). This doesn't sound so encouraging. Job growth is too slow.  

It makes a difference how the numbers are presented. If a single number fairly reports multiple numbers without much loss of information from the aggregation, the public is better off. Better public understanding of the data makes for better policies.


Sunday, April 15, 2012

How Much Must You Give for a White House Invite?

The NY Times today ("White House Welcomes Donors...", Sunday, April 15) had a page 1 story by Mike McIntire and Michael Luo about President Obama's invitations to the White House. Fascinating stuff.
Biggest surprise for me was the degree of White House transparency. The Federal Election Commission (FEC) keeps track of campaign donations (see www.data.gov) and the Executive Office of the President keeps a public log of visits to the White House that is posted on www.data.gov. Inevitably, someone was going to tie these together.

The donation totals are cumulative over three election cycles, i.e., from 2008 through 2012 (first quarter). Surprise (not) - there is a pretty close relationship between how much money you give and the probability of a White House invitation - for this purpose a visit equates to an invitation. The Times story doesn't provide a formula, but here is what I got inputting the numbers from the Times chart - see my chart immediately below.
PROBABILITY OF AN INVITATION y=26.3% + 40.2%x$GIFT (in thousands of dollars).
So if you give $100,000 over a 5.5-year period, your probability of an invitation is 26%+40%x100, which is (26+40)% = 66%.
What this means is that two out of three donors at the $100,000 level visit the White House. 
But a few caveats are needed, and a couple of questions must be asked.

First off, the FEC disclosure reports include gifts of only $200 and above. That excludes many small gifts via the Internet. So there will some invitations to dinner to the Internet givers that wouldn't show up on the FEC reports. The probability at the "zero" gift level is the probability that someone gets a White House invitation after giving only (at least) $200. The probability applies to givers of $200 or more.

Second, the White House visitors' list is hard to navigate for purposes of reconciling the numbers. What rules were followed in deciding who is included from the list of invitees? For example, many overseas visitors show up on the site and they are not permitted to give. Many of visits are labeled as events ("Holiday Party"). Some of the locations to which visitors are invited are strictly public rooms. How was the list narrowed down?

Finally, to draw conclusions that would characterize the Obama White House in any way, would we not need some data from other presidencies? How does the Obama era differ from Bush 43, for example?   

Saturday, April 14, 2012

Credit Card Absurdities

A story in The New York Times yesterday ("Consumer Bureau Declines to Resist Upfront Credit Card Fees, April 13, p. B1) expressed disbelief that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is proposing to allow credit card issuers to charge fees before borrowers' accounts are opened.

That's the kind of ripoff that The Credit Card Holders Bill of Rights, signed early in President Obama's presidency, ought to prevent.

Chi Chi Wu, an attorney at the National Consumer Law Center, describes an  example of what is going on:
First Premier [Bank of South Dakota] began charging a $95 processing fee before the card account was opened, as well as a $75 annual fee. Yet the credit limit on the card was $300.
Comments on the Bureau's proposal are due by June 11.

Meanwhile, James Monaco, writing "Guestwords" in the East Hampton Star yesterday, suggests that credit card companies haven't gone far enough, and that there are still untapped opportunities for gouging consumers. He suggests the following innovative fees:

No-call fee. $9.95 a month for no calls from credit card companies.

Automatic deductions.  $12.95 for each charge.

Paper billing fee. To get a paper bill, pay $17.76 a month, or $24.95 to include a return envelope for payment by check.

Unredeemed fee.  For each month you delay redeeming your frequent flyer miles, $19 per 10,000 points.

These fanciful suggestions are unfortunately not much worse that the reality. Banks for quite a few years have been making more money from fees than from interest rates.


Sunday, April 1, 2012

Manhattan Outpaces LA and Cook Counties, 3Q11


Numbers just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics allow us to track the relative economic performance of large counties through the third quarter of 2011. This week for the first time we have the dollars associated with payroll jobs in each area.As a model for understanding the numbers, let's take  the three largest counties - Los Angeles, Cook County and Manhattan (New York County). Los Angeles County has the most jobs - 3.9 million of them, 3.0 percent of all jobs in the United States. Cook County is second with 2.4 million jobs, 1.8 percent of all U.S. jobs. Finally, Manhattan has 2.3 million jobs, 1.8 percent of all U.S. jobs.  The three counties together have 6.6 percent of all U.S. jobs.
The relative size of the largest counties are shown in this BLS chart posted Friday, March 30. Los Angeles County encompasses the City of Los Angeles and Cook County encompasses the City of Chicago. New York City is the only U.S. city that includes more than one county. New York County is coterminous with the Borough of Manhattan, which is not the largest borough by number of residents but includes approximately three-fourths of the Gross City Product.  

Table 1. Employment in Large Counties
  USA and Three Largest Counties
    September 2011('000)
United States          130,524.7
 1.Los Angeles, Calif.    3,872.5       
 2.Cook, Ill.             2,402.7
 3.New York, N.Y.         2,332.5
Source: Data for this and the next four tables: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, QCEW report for September (3Q) 2011, March 28, 2012.

It is already known that Manhattan grew jobs at the fastest rate, 2.6 percent, during the year ending September 2011. This is a full percentage point faster than the United States as a whole. Cook County was also above the national average for job growth but Los Angeles grew jobs only half as fast as the nation. (See Table 2.) 

 Table 2. Increase in Employment
  USA and Three Largest Counties  
  September 2010-11 ('000 and %)
United States     2,040.9 (1.6%)
New York, N.Y.       60.6 (2.6%)         
Cook, Ill.           48.5 (2.0%) 
Los Angeles, Calif.  31.1 (0.8%)

The question that the new data on average wages help us to answer is - what happened to average salaries in the counties? Did job growth reflect a growth of less-well-paid jobs, or was the job growth occurring in better-paid industries? The average wage in the third quarter of 2011 was $916 a week in the United States and it was $1,647 in Manhattan, $1,047 in Cook County and $1,026 in Los Angeles. (See Table 3.)

  Table 3. Average Weekly Wage
  USA and Three Largest Counties       
         3rd quarter 2011                  
United States                  $916
New York, N.Y.                1,647
Cook, Ill.                    1,047
Los Angeles, Calif.           1,026

If one multiplies the total jobs in Table 1 by the average weekly wage in Table 3, it generates a good first approximation of the relative Gross County Product, i.e., the economic product of people working in each county. This number was the foundation for the NYC Comptroller's Office estimates of New York City's Gross City Product in the 1990s. New York City was the first city to develop Gross City Product estimates, at a time when Gross State Products were not available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as they are now.
Finally, we look at how the third-quarter 2011 average wage compares with the same quarter in 2010. This shows wages increasing faster in the rest of the United States. The average wage increase between the third quarter of 2010 and the third quarter of 2011 was 5.3 percent - from a much lower base than in the three largest counties. The Los Angeles County increase was only slightly below the national average, whereas New York County and Cook County wages rose 0.7 and 1.3 percentage points more slowly than the nation. (See Table 4.)  

Table 4. Increase in Average Weekly Wage
   USA and Three Largest Counties     
 3rd quarter 2011 (% change from 2010)
United States                 5.3%
Los Angeles, Calif.           5.2%           
New York, N.Y.                4.6%
Cook, Ill.                    4.0%

At low levels of growth, the percentage increase in jobs plus the percentage increase in the average weekly wage approximates the percentage increase in the Gross Product.  So the percentage increase of the national GDP would be approximated at 1.6% + 5.3% = 6.9%. The more accurate formula is multiplicative, which gives slightly larger rates of increase than adding the two percentage increases:

     ΔGross County Product = (E+ΔE) x (W+ΔW),
     where E is Employment and W is Wages.

For the nation, the more accurate figure for the change in the wage component of the Gross Product is 7.0%. (See Table 5.)

Table 5. Increase in Wage Component of Gross Product
         USA and Three Largest Counties     
       3rd quarter 2011 (% change from 2010)
                    A=(E+ΔE) B=(W+ΔW)C=AxB   ΔGCP
United States       101.6%   105.3%  107.0%  7.0%
New York, N.Y.      102.6%   104.6%  107.3%  7.3%
Cook, Ill.          102.0%   104.0%  106.1%  6.1%
Los Angeles, Calif. 100.8%   105.2%  106.0%  6.0%

From the last column in Table 5 we can now answer the question – how have the wage sectors of the three largest counties been performing based on the latest county employment and wage data?
The wage component of the nation’s economy grew 7 percent. The nation was led by New York County, which grew 7.3 percent. The other two counties’ wage economies lagged behind. Wages grew at a faster rate in Los Angeles County than in New York County, but from a very much lower base (as shown in Table 3).
We get a general picture of the relative performance of the county wage economies from the QCEW data. We can then drill down into the industry components to understand which parts of each wage economy are contributing the most. This will be the subject of another post.